Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
This episode will introduce the two leading candidates, their political parties, and the kind of policies they will likely use in their campaigns.
Listen to learn about British politics and pick up some useful vocabulary!
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Vocabulary
- Candidate (Noun): A person who is running for a political office.
- The candidate for the local election promised to improve public transportation.
- Conservative Party (Proper Noun): A major right-wing political party in the UK, also known as the Tories.
- The Conservative Party has been in power in the UK since 2010.
- Labour Party (Proper Noun): A major left-wing political party in the UK.
- The Labour Party aims to increase public spending on healthcare and education.
- Inflation (Noun): The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, causing purchasing power to fall.
- The government is implementing policies to control inflation and stabilize the economy.
- Brexit (Noun): The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
- Brexit has had a significant impact on trade and immigration policies in the UK.
- Polling (Noun): The process of voting in an election or the process of conducting surveys to measure public opinion.
- The latest polling data suggests a close race between the two leading candidates.
- Immigration (Noun): The action of coming to live permanently in a foreign country.
- The new government policy aims to streamline the immigration process for skilled workers.
The General Election
The UK general election is just around the corner, and potentially there will soon be a new Prime Minister of the country.
Last week I released an episode explaining and introducing elections in the UK, but this week I’d like to focus on the candidates and the parties that are competing for power.
The UK has a multi-party political system. This means a number of different political parties (as well as independent candidates) have the chance to win seats in Houses of Parliament. The leader of the political party with the most seats after the election will become the new Prime Minister of the UK!
As I mentioned last week, there are a lot of parties that could (and probably will) win seats during this election. The Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru in Wales, and the various parties in Northern Ireland will definitely have Members of Parliament elected. The Liberal Democrat Party usually win a decent number of seats as well, while smaller parties like the Green Party have a chance in a few areas, and independent candidates could succeed too.
However, in reality the race to win the election is between the two most popular political parties in the UK: the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. And the competition to be the next Prime Minister of the UK is between the leaders of these parties: Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
In today’s episode, I want to look at who will be the next leader of the UK and who will be the next government!
The Conservatives and Rishi Sunak
Who are the Conservative Party?
The British Conservative Party, often referred to as the Tories, have been a force in British politics since the 17th century and have been in power in the UK since 2010.
The party traces its origins to the very beginning of party politics in the UK as the Tories in the 17th century, before the Conservative Party officially emerged in 1834.
In the 20th century, the Conservative Party played a major role in British politics, with notable leaders including Winston Churchill, who led Britain during World War II, and Margaret Thatcher, whose tenure from 1979 to 1990 marked a significant ideological shift. Thatcherism emphasized free-market policies, privatization of state-owned industries, reduction of trade union power, and a strong stance against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
The late 20th and early 21st centuries saw changes and shifts in policy under leaders like John Major, David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson. These years were marked by issues such as European Union membership, which culminated in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
As of 2024, the Conservative Party is led by Rishi Sunak, who became Prime Minister in October 2022. Sunak, a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, represents a pragmatic and fiscally conservative approach within the party.
Who is Rishi Sunak?
Rishi Sunak has been the Prime Minister of the UK since 2022 when he replaced Liz Truss just a few weeks after she had been appointed Prime Minister.
I actually recorded a bonus episode of Thinking in English back in 2022 titled “My Opinion on Rishi Sunak (the New Prime Minister of the UK)!!” which gave a detailed summary of my opinion at the time.
Sunak is the youngest modern British Prime Minister and the first person of colour to hold the office.
His parents are of Indian origin and immigrated to the UK from East Africa, and Sunak is a practising Hindu.
He has led a very privileged life, attending one of the most elite and exclusive private schools in the UK, Winchester College, which costs £45,000 a year to attend. Then he studied philosphy, politics, and economics (PPE) at the University of Oxford. This course has a reputation for producing leaders.
Actually, I’m going to repeat myself from a previous bonus episode because I want to demonstrate how many influential people have studied PPE at Oxford University. This first quote is borrowed from a Guardian article:
“Monday, 13 April 2015 was a typical day in modern British politics. An Oxford University graduate in PPE, Ed Miliband, launched the Labour party’s general election manifesto. It was examined by the BBC’s political editor, Oxford PPE graduate Nick Robinson, by the BBC’s economics editor, Oxford PPE graduate Robert Peston, and by the director of the Institute of Fiscal Studies, Oxford PPE graduate Paul Johnson. It was criticised by the prime minister, Oxford PPE graduate David Cameron. It was defended by the Labour shadow chancellor, Oxford PPE graduate Ed Balls.”
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/feb/23/ppe-oxford-university-degree-that-rules-britain
That was just the start of the examples listed in the Guardian… The BBC Newsnight presenter studied PPE; the editors of the Economist magazine and political magazine Prospect studied PPE; Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Times and the Sun studied PPE.
The left-wing Labour party leaders Michael Foot and Hugh Gaitskell studied PPE; former Prime Ministers Edward Heath, Harold Wilson, and David Cameron studied PPE; hundreds of British Politicians have studied PPE.
Tony Abbott, Bob Hawke, and Malcom Frazer (former PMs of Australia), Farooq Leghari, Liaquat Ali, Imran Khan, and Benazir Bhutto (former PMs or Presidents of Pakistan), Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (former leader of Peru), Kukrit Pramoj (former PM of Thailand), Aung San Suu Kyi (Nobel prize winner and former leader of Myanmar): they all studied PPE.
Hundreds of international famous journalists, politicians, broadcasters, businesspeople, and leaders all studied PPE
After graduating, Sunak worked at Goldman Sachs and then studied at Stanford University in the USA. He met his wife Akshata Murty at Stanford (she is the daughter of Infosys founder Narayana Murty and one of the richest people in the UK). He went on to partner in hedge funds, and today is the richest politician in the UK by far.
He was elected as an Member of Parliament in 2015, was given his first major role in 2019, and became a household name in England due to his influence and TV appearances during the Covid pandemic and lockdowns.
When Boris Johnson resigned as Prime Minister in 2022, Sunak was one of the leading candidates but lost to Liz Truss. Truss was probably the least successful British leader in UK history, and Sunak replaced her just a few weeks later!
Sunak made five promises soon after being appointed as Prime Minister.
He promised to halve inflation, which has been achieved in the past few months. Inflation is currently below 3% compared to 10.7% in 2022.
He promised to grow the economy, which was a failure as the UK actually entered recession.
He promised to reduce government debt. Debt has actually increased under Sunak, but this was supposed to be a long-term policy.
He promised to cut NHS waiting lists but hasn’t been very successful.
And he promised to stop small boats of illegal immigrants reaching the UK. He did pass some new laws, including a controversial law that allowed illegal immigrants to be sent Rwanda, but illegal boat crossings to the UK has not decreased significantly.
What will the Conservative Campaign Look Like?
The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and have been the only poltical party with influence in government since 2015.
Realistically, they can’t really campaign on complete change (like Labour will) but instead they will focus on continuing their successful policies, completing what they have started, and suggesting that Labour will be worse than them.
For example, they will focus on their success in reducing inflation. Sunak will definitely take credit for this (even though it was probably going to fall anyway).
They will also talk about their plans to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda. This has been one of Sunak’s major policies, and most controversial policies, over the past two years. They will contrast this policy with Labour’s ideas on illegal immigration, and if elected will have even more power to push through the policy.
One of Sunak’s first policy announcements during the election campaign was to bring back National Service. Sunak wants all 18-year-olds to serve the country through the military or non-military service. The UK has not had national service for over 60 years.
Another major policy will be cutting taxes.
They have suggested cutting national insurance payments, reducing income tax for people earning over £100,000 a year, and cutting inheritance tax in the future. They will also probably promise to not increase any other taxes in the UK.
Labour and Keir Starmer
What is the Labour Party?
The Labour Party has been one of the dominant poltical parties in the UK since its founding 100 years ago.
It was founded in the year 1900 as a political representative of the labour movement and trade unions. Initially named the Labour Representation Committee (LRC), it aimed to increase the representation of workers in Parliament. It became the Labour Party in 1906.
They achieved electoral success after WW2, and in the 1990s were revitalised by former leader Tony Blair and rebranded as “New Labour.” They were last in power between 1997 and 2010, under the leadership of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
As of 2024, the Labour Party is led by Keir Starmer, who took over in April 2020. Starmer, a former Director of Public Prosecutions, has steered the party towards the political centre after the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, who had emphasized a more left-wing agenda.
Who is Keir Starmer?
The leader of the Labour Party is current Keir Starmer, or to be technical Sir Keir Starmer. If Labour get the most seats in the next election, Keir Starmer will become the next Prime Minister of the UK.
Keir Starmer was born in London to a working-class family.
He attended the University of Leeds where he studied law and became involved in student politics. After graduating, Starmer went on to study at St Edmund Hall, Oxford, and then became a barrister specializing in human rights law.
Starmer’s legal career saw him rise to prominence as a leading human rights lawyer. He worked on high-profile cases involving civil liberties, often representing individuals against the government.
He famously represented environmental activists in a legal case against McDonalds, as well as focusing on controversial and contentious human rights cases. This has been a common criticism from his Conservative rivals in recent years, who talk about him representing terrorists and criminals in the past (I think this is a bit of a stupid argument as everyone, even terrorists, deserve legal representation).
In 2008, he was appointed Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) and Head of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), where he oversaw major criminal cases and advocated for justice reform.
In 2015, Starmer was elected as the Member of Parliament for Holborn and St Pancras, representing the Labour Party. He quickly gained recognition for his expertise in legal matters and was appointed Shadow Brexit Secretary in 2016, where he played a key role in shaping Labour’s stance on Brexit during the negotiations.
Following Labour’s defeat in the 2019 general election, Starmer announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Running on a platform of unity and electability, he won the leadership contest in April 2020, succeeding Jeremy Corbyn.
As Labour leader, Starmer has focused on rebuilding the party’s credibility and presenting a more moderate, centrist approach. He has sought to appeal to a broad base of voters while maintaining Labour’s commitment to social justice and progressive values.
However, his leadership has faced challenges, particularly in balancing the interests of different factions within the party and navigating the complexities of Brexit and post-pandemic recovery.
What Will Labour’s Campaign Look Like?
Labour’s campaign is going to be focused on change and offering an alternative to the Conservative party.
After 14 years of Conservative party rule, which has seen economic crises, Brexit, scandals, and a lot of different Prime Ministers, Labour are hoping that the British public want something different.
Although the official Labour manifesto has not been announced, there are some things they are certainly going to talk about.
They will clearly criticise Conservative policies and ideas. They will question the financial sense of cutting taxes for the wealthy or reducing national insurance payments.
They are likely to focus on housing, which is a big issue in the UK at the moment. Labour have already promised to build 1.5 million new homes and build new towns, and they may make policies to make it easier to get mortgages for young people.
One of the first policies Keir Starmer has talked about publicly is reducing the voting age in the UK. At the moment, all citizens 18 or older can vote in elections. Starmer wants to reduce this to 16 years old, as this is the age people can work freely, pay tax, and leave high school.
While economic stability has always been a talking point of the Conservative party, in recent years British people have been increasingly frustrated with their actions. In particular, Liz Truss’s very short time as Prime minister a few years ago caused a lot of economic problems and left a bad taste in many people’s mouths.
One of the most important issues in the UK is our health service, known as the NHS. Over the past 14 years of Conservative government, waiting times in UK hospitals have increased significantly, and Labour will be promising to cut these waiting times!
While the Conservatives will likely focus on their plans to stop illegal immigration through deportations to Rwanda, Keir Starmer wants to scrap this scheme and instead focus on a new border security department. The Conservatives want to deport illegal immigrants, while Labour will likely focus on prosecuting the criminals and people smugglers trafficking people to the UK.
One of Keir Starmer’s long term policies is to invest more in green energy, in particular with the creation of a new national energy company called Great British Energy. They want to set this company up in the first 100 days of being in power, and plan to focus on investing in clean energy schemes and cutting-edge technology.
Labour have already promised to recruit 6500 more teachers if elected. They have suggested a tax on private schools to fund this policy.
Who Will Be The Next Prime Minister?
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Who will make up the next government? Will it be more of Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party? Or will it be Keir Starmer and the Labour Party?
Just so you all know, I’m writing this episode in May… and it will be released in late June… so a lot could change after I’ve recorded this episode.
Right now, however, it looks like the Labour Party are the favourites to win and could win quite easily.
They have been consistently ranking 20% higher in national polls compared to the Conservatives, with Politico’s average of national polls suggesting Labour is favoured by 45% of the country compared to the Conservatives with just 23%.
Some forecasts have suggested Labour could win 419 seats in parliament, which would be a massive victory and an incredibly embarrassment for the Conservative Party.
Bookmakers and gambling websites in the UK are also predicting a Labour victory, and the odds are heavily in Keir Starmer’s favour.
In all honesty, the Conservatives look a little tired, disjointed, and perhaps are not sure about what they should be focusing on. While Labour might not be everyone’s favourite, the Conservatives are so disliked at the moment it seems improbable they will win.
All of this suggests the Labour will win and win easily… but things could change. Polls could be inaccurate, scandals may break, and the Conservatives could always win again.
We’ll have to wait until July 4th to see what happens!
Final Thought
The upcoming UK general election is poised to be a decisive moment, with the Labour party currently leading significantly in the polls. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is favoured to win against Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, promising substantial changes and new policies.
However, as political dynamics can shift rapidly, the final outcome remains uncertain until election day on July 4th. Regardless of predictions, the race to determine the next Prime Minister and government will be closely watched by people across the UK and the world (including by myself).
What do you think? Who is your country’s current leader?
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